Market views· Markets overview
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The current macro regime (risk on, risk off, reflation or stagflation) from five cross-asset ratios and the yield curve.
Since 26 Oct 2026
The market is currently in a medium-confidence risk-off regime characterized by a significant flight to quality, as evidenced by the sharp outperformance of long-term Treasuries and widening credit spreads. While the strong move in equal-weighted versus cap-weighted equities suggests a rotation away from mega-cap concentration, the flat yield curve and defensive bond bid signal underlying concerns regarding a growth slowdown. Investors should monitor the divergence between resilient energy prices and weakening credit appetite, as this combination points to potential stagflationary risks that could further pressure risk assets.
| Date | Regime | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-05 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-06 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-07 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-08 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-09 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-10 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-11 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-12 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-13 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-14 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-15 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-16 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-17 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-18 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-19 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-08-20 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-08-21 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-22 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-23 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-08-24 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-08-25 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-08-26 | Reflation | Low |
| 2026-08-27 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-08-28 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-08-29 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-08-30 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-08-31 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-01 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-02 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-03 | Risk-on | Medium |
| 2026-09-04 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-05 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-09-06 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-09-07 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-09-08 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-09 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-10 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-09-11 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-12 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-13 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-14 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-09-15 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-16 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-17 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-18 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-19 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-20 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-21 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-22 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-09-23 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-09-24 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-25 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-26 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-27 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-28 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-29 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-09-30 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-01 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-02 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-03 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-04 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-05 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-06 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-07 | Risk-on | Low |
| 2026-10-08 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-09 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-10 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-11 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-12 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-13 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-14 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-15 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-16 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-17 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-18 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-19 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-20 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-21 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-22 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-23 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-10-24 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-10-25 | Transition | Low |
| 2026-10-26 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-27 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-10-28 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-29 | Risk-off | Low |
| 2026-10-30 | Risk-off | High |
| 2026-10-31 | Risk-off | Medium |
| 2026-11-01 | Risk-off | Medium |
| Signal | Current | 20-day average | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP/SPYMarket breadth | Above trend | 0.2889 | 2.01 | +5.43% | +1.11% | 0.2818 |
| HYG/LQDCredit appetite | Below trend | 0.7426 | −1.57 | −1.44% | −1.11% | 0.7446 |
| IWM/SPYSmall-cap leadership | Neutral | 0.3696 | 0.21 | +3.49% | −3.81% | 0.3602 |
| TLT/SPYFlight to safety | Above trend | 0.1083 | 1.44 | +7.96% | +1.11% | 0.1051 |
| XLE/XLUInflation signal | Above trend | 1.6122 | 1.02 | +1.68% | +5.68% | 1.6128 |
An inverted curve (2-year above 10-year) has historically signalled recession; a steepening curve suggests recovery expectations.